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Ford Falcon or Plymouth Fury - Is Vista good enough to sell?

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By almost any measure the 1962 Plymouth Fury was an awesome beast in it's day.  A car that looked great and which was more secure and comfortable than many other cars of its day.  Two extra rear lights, bucket seats and console.  Heck!  No wonder dealers and buyers alike loved it.

1962 Plymouth Fury

Regardless of how cool the belt moulding spear that ran from the front to the rear of the Plymouth made it look we aren't driving them today.  Today Plymouth's aren't advertised and we don't buy them.  Today we are much more likely to buy a more conventional modern car like the Ford Falcon:

Ford Falcon

The Ford Falcon boast such features such as Air-Conditioning, Alloy Wheels, CD Player, Front and Rear spoilers and also Traction control.  Who wouldn't want to own a 2006 Ford Falcon over a 1962 Plymouth Fury?  It's a no brainer right?

What's the compelling reason for upgrading to Vista?

It's amazing how many times I've been asked this question of late.  Perhaps the most interesting thing is that the people who have been asking the question have been primarily either Microsoft employees or other leading technical readiness people.  The conversation usually goes something like this:

Them: What's the compelling reason for upgrading to Vista?

Me: Well, there's a few.  UAC is probably the biggest one that immediately springs to mind.

Them: Yeah, sure.  But it's not really a good enough reason to move over though - don't you think?

Me: Hrm, sure, OK.  What about user experience.  Vista has dozens - if not hundreds - of new user experience features that make using the computer easier, more secure, and more enjoyable.  My favourite of these features is Search and Organize.

Them: But user experience isn't really a compelling business reason to migrate over.  I mean I've got MSN Desktop Search on XP and it does a great job - don't you think?

Me: Right, whatever.  Finally, I think that the new Windows API's in Vista are going to enable new types of features and experiences to added to the core OS experience.  These API's include things such as RestartManager, LivePreview, etc.  These are things that we can use today but will probably be expected by users in 3 or 4 years time.

Them: Yes but.... blah de blah, blah, waffle, wah.

Why is it that we are having such difficulty in understanding why Vista will sell?  It's not the market that are having trouble - Microsoft's own research tells us that they expect a few hundred million copies of Vista to be sold within the first 4 years alone!  The trouble that we are having is because of either a rash of conservatism or from pessimism that exists within our own industry.

I mean heck, you tell people about Search and Organize and they come back with... "Yeah but I can install MSN Desktop Search on XP"... Sheesh!  I wish that my artistic skills were good enough to superimpose the Ford Falcon front spoiler and other features on top of the Plymouth Fury so that they could see how ridiculous this really is :-)

People like comfort, they like safety, and they like features.  These are things that the Ford Falcon has over the Plymouth Fury and they are equally things that Vista has over XP/2000/ME/98/95.

 

posted 7/28/2006 12:17:43 PM

 

Comments:

# Vista upgrade compusion
posted by G4 on 7/28/2006 12:48:25 PM :

Markup man...as a technologist I understand the benefits. But having a more sexy camshaft is not going to cut it for the CXO's out there who will ultimately decide on the move to Vista. I want hard numbers on how Vista makes employees more efficient, delivers more output, gives better ROI...you know the boring busine$$ reasons

# Comfort and Safety
posted by Andrew Parsons on 7/28/2006 12:52:34 PM :

Darren, while I agree it seems to be an uphill battle to convince those around us that Vista is a viable (essential?) upgrade, I'm not sure they would agree with us for almost the same reasons you're putting forward.

[quote]People like comfort, they like safety, and they like features. These are things that the Ford Falcon has over the Plymouth Fury and they are equally things that Vista has over XP/2000/ME/98/95.[/quote]
People DO like comfort and safety. Installing a new operating system doesn't give them either of those things. Oh, it might do in the long run, but initially, there's almost nothing LESS safe for a computer than to blow it's operating system away and install a new one - one that hasn't been proven in the real world yet.

And going along with that is the comfort aspect. While there ARE dozens, if not hundreds, of enhancements in Vista, people are comfortable with their current operating system. So, in the long run they will eventually be more comfortable with Vista than XP, but initially it's the reverse and there will be many cries of "I wish I had XP - I know how to do XYZ in XP".

I can speak from personal experience with my wife - she doesn't like me to install anything new on her PC (we're still using Microsoft Money 97!!! for our personal finances) because it takes her out of her comfort zone.

While you and I see benefits in upgrading to Vista, I suspect the mainstream look at Vista as an upgrade to XP in the same way as they would look at buying the Ford Falcon 2006 model when they have a 2005 model in their garage - not a '62 Plymouth.

I also suspect it's got to be a gradual thing - while they may not think Search and Organize (will this be labelled Organise in Oz?) is worth enough on its own to upgrade, couple it with UAC, the APIs, the new UI, DirectX 10, etc etc and eventurally it will tip the balance. I can't see a single reason on its own that justifies the upgrade.

# The ROI argument is...
posted by Darren Neimke on 7/28/2006 12:57:17 PM :

G4: Try taking your Plymouth Fury for a service or getting spare parts for it and you'll know that there are a lot of hidden costs in maintaining an older vehicle. The more time that goes by, the larger the hidden costs. In 5 years time the costs of maintaining XP SOE's and adding features that will allow XP clients to support .NET V5 will be high.

For that reason, it will make sense for IT to manage the budgets that they are given between now and then to ensure that they are not faced with the huge liability of doing a large scale migration at that time.

Sensible management of all IT assets should ensure that even the slowest of technology adopters have at least one foot in the door.

# In addition...
posted by Mitch Wheat on 7/28/2006 1:18:08 PM :

Hi Darren

I agree with Andrew Parsons comments above, in addition : "Microsoft's own research tells us that they expect a few hundred million copies of Vista to be sold within the first 4 years alone!" hmmmmmm... How many of these will be OEM bundled and how many will be sold off the shelf? Given the slow down in PC sales that number seems very optimistic. Are there any public domain hard numbers available?

I don't think the analogy with the old car and spare parts is entirely appropriate. Old cars don't get recalled because a fault is found, new ones sometimes do. From Microsoft's past experience, releasing a new OS often opens up a whole load of new flaws (some of which were fixed in the previous OS's service packs!) Time patches flaws.

Microsoft has to stop relying on its locked in OEM agreements and give customers something they really want and need. I'm not saying I have an answer to that question(although I do have a few ideas)

Vista will be great. But that alone does not sell a product (look at VHS and BetaMAx!) OK, OK that wasn't a good analogy either!

The biggest advantages seem to be for developers, which is probably why MS will not support .NET 3.0 on windows 2000; maybe if enough great third party products spring up for Vista that will be incentive enough for end users to upgrade the OS.

# VHS and BetaMax
posted by Darren Neimke on 7/28/2006 1:20:27 PM :

>> Vista will be great. But that alone does not sell
>> a product (look at VHS and BetaMAx!) OK, OK that
>> wasn't a good analogy either!


LOL. Not a great analogy eh Mitch? Didn't stop you leaving it in the comment I see :-)

# Devil's advocate
posted by Paul Glavich on 7/28/2006 2:05:45 PM :

Darren, I agree with all your comments on the benefits around Vista useability, security etc... however to play devils advocate (and I am going to seem a little antagonistic), this is what I believe Vista sales/perception are up against from a general consumer and business perspective (NOT a developers technical perspective):

>> Vista has dozens - if not hundreds - of new user experience features that make using the computer easier, more secure, and more enjoyable
* Based on your opinion. As has already been said, users know what how to do what they need now. I dont want to learn another 100 features nor train my employees and have lost productivity time on my hands.

>> Finally, I think that the new Windows API's in Vista are going to enable new types of features and experiences to added to the core OS experience. These API's include things such as RestartManager, LivePreview, etc. These are things that we can use today but will probably be expected by users in 3 or 4 years time.
* And as a consumer, I care about that because....? As a business I want to enhance my bottom line now, not wait till 4 years for something that may take off or that I may not even have a business requirement for.

>> Microsoft's own research tells us that they expect a few hundred million copies of Vista to be sold within the first 4 years alone!
* Really, how suprising. Microsoft research telling us they are going to sell lots of units (consumer hint). If they had done a study which said Vista would die a painfull death, would they tell us?

>> What's the compelling reason for upgrading to Vista?
* Your going to get it eventually, so get used to it. Businesses will also get it shipped on new PC's and people will request it. Corporates will initially format these systems and load their own images on, but demand will eventually cause them to create Vista images.

Note: I have painted a pretty antagonistic view of things above but I believe (and I think you have seen) thats exactly how a lot of people are. Its not really the technical merits that will be selling it. Desktop search is Desktop search to a lot of people, technical merits aside. Useability is based very firmly in familiarity, not in experiemental new features.
I think thats the selling point that Microsoft, and us as techno phobes are missing. Dont get me wrong, I like Vista and am currently using it to a degree but I am not the one they need to sell it to.

What about the fact that you can get all these new things AND still use the old XP interface if you choose (I know its not identical)? Wouldn't that give us a pretty good migration path for those wishing to use the same old ways, but have the advantages of the newer subsystems? While also allowing those daring enough to go all out on the new interface. I think thats a good selling point but overshadowed by the glitz of the new UI.


# If a group of Lion's is called a "Pride"...
posted by Darren Neimke on 7/28/2006 2:24:02 PM :

...then what is a group of Devil's called?

Glav, I take your points. My point is not that it's not useful to have Devil's advocates - that's great. The issue here is that I think that we have too many.

There's a great deal of money to be made in "helping" people to understand the benefits of buying the new Ford.

# By the powers of negativity combined.....
posted by Paul Glavich on 7/28/2006 3:55:06 PM :

>> My point is not that it's not useful to have Devil's advocates - that's great.
I tend to disagree here. You need to understand the nature of your customers concerns, whether legitimate or not. Devils advocate is just trying to place yourself in their shoes, even if at the extreme.

>> The issue here is that I think that we have too many.
Yeah, you may be right ;-) ... Just trying to make a point is all.

>> There's a great deal of money to be made in "helping" people to understand the benefits of buying the new Ford.
And if customers just see the money being made in "helping" them learn something that is supposed to be so easy, I think you've lost.

I understand your frustration, but I just see it as the same old stuff that surfaced for most revisions of the OS. The concerns are no different, sure the technology has moved ahead, but its just business as usual. For those sticks in the mud, it just may take 3 or 4 attempts at convincing them, and "saying" its really good will never do. Once they use it, or their friends use it, become familiar and see the benefits (with assistance from ourselves no doubt), thats when the lightbulb goes "ping".

I dont think anyone has really answered your question that you were asked though which is:
"What's the compelling reason for upgrading to Vista?"

I think the answer is that it is MUCH quicker to become familiar with than any OS to date. Once you are familiar, you will be 200% more productive and 200% more secure just doing the same daily tasks, and it looks great too. (Note: Percentage figures have been plucked out of thin air. Actual mileage may vary).

The technology at work is what you have already mentioned above, but its just the engine. As long as the engine is purring, life is good.

# Excellent point!
posted by Darren Neimke on 7/28/2006 4:34:11 PM :

Glav, I really like your attempt at answering the question when you say:

*************************
I think the answer is that it is MUCH quicker to become familiar with than any OS to date. Once you are familiar, you will be 200% more productive and 200% more secure just doing the same daily tasks, and it looks great too.
*************************

I like that. However, when you disagreed with my initial point... I think that if you re-read my comment that we are actually in agreeance; I just got you with a double negative there I think :-)

# But what about emotion?
posted by G4 on 7/28/2006 7:41:49 PM :

I think the car analogy is good but it completely ignores the emotional bit. The sight and sound of a 74 Falcon, the glimps of a honeycomb grill and the thump in the chest when the V8 sped past at a bazzillion miles and hour. The only way you can get those classic cars off the road is to legislate against them - not popular at all. I remember when a large Telco was told that XP booted up at least 30 seconds faster that W2K their response was 'Good we can sack an extra 900 personnel and still do the same amount of work"

The resons to go Vista need to be:
a. Easy to quantify
b. Enjoyable by all users
c. In the order of $ not cents

# Great
posted by Photography Studios on 8/10/2009 4:49:27 AM :

I don't think the analogy with the old car and spare parts is entirely appropriate. Old cars don't get recalled because a fault is found, new ones sometimes do. From Microsoft's past experience, releasing a new OS often opens up a whole load of new flaws (some of which were fixed in the previous OS's service packs!) Time patches flaws.

# Great
posted by Spa Massage on 8/28/2009 12:51:57 PM :

very nice post!!!! thanks

 

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